Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 5.4 | 5.3% | 52 | 0.45% | 54 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 17.0 | 14.6% | 143 | 1.05% | 166 | 1.22% |
| 20-29 | 27 | 23.1 | 20.6% | 202 | 0.97% | 251 | 1.2% |
| 30-39 | 24 | 18.0 | 15.6% | 153 | 1.12% | 169 | 1.24% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 13.7 | 11.6% | 114 | 1.09% | 133 | 1.27% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 15.4 | 12.9% | 127 | 1.01% | 147 | 1.17% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 12.9 | 10.7% | 105 | 0.91% | 129 | 1.12% |
| 70+ | 10 | 9.6 | 8.8% | 86 | 0.82% | 99 | 0.95% |
| All ages | 125 | 115.1 | 100% | 982 | 0.94% | 1148 | 1.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.4 | 3.2% | 21 | 0.27% | 27 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 5.1 | 6.8% | 45 | 0.54% | 64 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 7.3 | 9.5% | 63 | 0.89% | 94 | 1.32% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 13.3 | 18.9% | 126 | 1.5% | 146 | 1.74% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 13.1 | 17.7% | 118 | 1.52% | 139 | 1.79% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 13.1 | 18% | 120 | 1.24% | 152 | 1.57% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 11.3 | 15.6% | 104 | 1.24% | 121 | 1.44% |
| 70+ | 17 | 7.1 | 10.2% | 68 | 0.96% | 91 | 1.28% |
| All ages | 104 | 72.9 | 100% | 665 | 1.03% | 830 | 1.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.4% | 9 | 0.17% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 5.1 | 12.5% | 47 | 0.87% | 61 | 1.12% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 6.6 | 15.5% | 58 | 1.28% | 70 | 1.55% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 4.4 | 13.9% | 52 | 0.96% | 67 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.1 | 15.5% | 58 | 1.17% | 82 | 1.65% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6.6 | 14.4% | 54 | 0.8% | 66 | 0.97% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.1 | 13.6% | 51 | 0.81% | 64 | 1.01% |
| 70+ | 4 | 5.9 | 13.1% | 49 | 0.77% | 58 | 0.92% |
| All ages | 46 | 40.4 | 100% | 375 | 0.83% | 477 | 1.05% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.4 | 3.1% | 17 | 0.14% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 7.9 | 12.2% | 67 | 0.4% | 81 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 14.7 | 26% | 143 | 0.67% | 187 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 7.1 | 12.6% | 69 | 0.51% | 92 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 8.1 | 13.1% | 72 | 0.53% | 95 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 8.9 | 16.4% | 90 | 0.63% | 109 | 0.77% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 4.7 | 9.3% | 51 | 0.36% | 73 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 8 | 4.0 | 7.3% | 40 | 0.31% | 50 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 110 | 57.9 | 100% | 549 | 0.46% | 709 | 0.6% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 11.0 | 4.6% | 120 | 0.2% | 141 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 31 | 33.4 | 12.2% | 323 | 0.45% | 378 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 62 | 64.7 | 24.4% | 643 | 0.62% | 738 | 0.71% |
| 30-39 | 26 | 43.4 | 16.3% | 431 | 0.56% | 511 | 0.67% |
| 40-49 | 37 | 37.1 | 14.4% | 381 | 0.58% | 444 | 0.68% |
| 50-59 | 31 | 34.9 | 13.6% | 359 | 0.55% | 420 | 0.64% |
| 60-69 | 15 | 18.7 | 7.7% | 202 | 0.37% | 247 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 16 | 19.3 | 6.8% | 178 | 0.36% | 202 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 224 | 262.6 | 100% | 2637 | 0.48% | 3081 | 0.56% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 197 | 158.6 | 3.8% | 1572 | 0.25% | 1973 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 518 | 412.0 | 9.8% | 4021 | 0.53% | 5141 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 793 | 690.3 | 16.8% | 6894 | 0.91% | 8887 | 1.17% |
| 30-39 | 780 | 657.4 | 15.9% | 6545 | 0.86% | 8418 | 1.11% |
| 40-49 | 689 | 618.0 | 14.8% | 6099 | 0.87% | 7805 | 1.12% |
| 50-59 | 766 | 678.0 | 16.5% | 6763 | 0.83% | 8743 | 1.07% |
| 60-69 | 560 | 489.1 | 11.9% | 4897 | 0.65% | 6245 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 567 | 424.4 | 10.5% | 4313 | 0.67% | 5458 | 0.85% |
| All ages | 4870 | 4128.0 | 100% | 41105 | 0.71% | 52671 | 0.9% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109.7 | 122 | 119.9 | 115.1 | 34.6 | 34.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128.4 | 72.9 | 31.4 | 35.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105.4 | 40.4 | 23.3 | 32.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 48.9 | 87.9 | 57.9 | 31.9 | 25.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.4 | 53.2 | 71 | 262.6 | 155.4 | 19.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.5 | 67.9 | 117.4 | 4128 | 2839.7 | 28.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 13.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.4 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-19 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1963"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges